Water FractalTier 1
at EVO treasure tournament
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.1% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Neos | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |